Table 2.
Predicted number of typhoid cases, deaths, and DALYs averted over 10 years following introduction of routine immunisation with typhoid conjugate vaccines plus a catch-up campaign
| Baseline total typhoid cases (thousands) | Baseline total typhoid deaths | Baseline total typhoid DALYs (thousands) | Total typhoid cases averted (thousands) | Total typhoid deaths averted | Total typhoid DALYs averted (thousands) | Percentage of typhoid cases averted | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Afghanistan | 2298 (336–4 301) | 9681 (346–182 786) | 509 (23–9574) | 1353 (194–2982) | 6153 (202–116 215) | 330 (13–6032) | 66% (35–82%) |
| Angola | 546 (300–880) | 2261 (115–37 957) | 91 (7–1529) | 324 (145–633) | 1444 (68–23 819) | 59 (4–986) | 66% (37–82%) |
| Armenia | 2 (0·203–4) | 9 (0–192) | 0·539 (0·022–11) | 1 (0·094–3) | 5 (0–102) | 0·310 (0·012–6) | 53% (30–75%) |
| Azerbaijan | 20 (1–40) | 80 (2–1714) | 4 (0·165–89) | 10 (0·713–27) | 47 (1–1048) | 3 (0·099–58) | 60% (34–82%) |
| Bangladesh | 14 083 (9526–18 559) | 26 812 (428–1 232 180) | 1723 (80–75 304) | 8508 (4066–13 489) | 17 390 (253–778 865) | 1153 (50–48 566) | 66% (34–83%) |
| Benin | 1230 (249–2222) | 4260 (175–76 137) | 222 (12–4066) | 751 (156–1639) | 2789 (108–47 662) | 149 (7–2495) | 70% (35–86%) |
| Bhutan | 20 (8–32) | 96 (5–1705) | 5 (0·367–94) | 11 (4–21) | 52 (3–927) | 3 (0·200–52) | 57% (29–76%) |
| Bolivia | 199 (14–397) | 530 (12–9845) | 29 (0·827–508) | 112 (8–279) | 314 (6–5825) | 18 (0·443–321) | 61% (32–81%) |
| Burkina Faso | 975 (797–1177) | 2873 (167–37 619) | 141 (10–1820) | 692 (360–951) | 1990 (109–25712) | 101 (7–1305) | 72% (39–87%) |
| Burundi | 1268 (184–2370) | 4938 (182–87 907) | 234 (10–4094) | 857 (125–1842) | 3434 (129–61654) | 170 (8–2956) | 74% (40–88%) |
| Cambodia | 808 (573–1061) | 4046 (208–61 178) | 232 (15–3375) | 479 (237–748) | 2502 (131–37 356) | 149 (10–2174) | 65% (34–81%) |
| Cameroon | 557 (454–674) | 2385 (122–35666) | 115 (8–1715) | 381 (184–529) | 1659 (85–24332) | 82 (5–1159) | 72% (37–87%) |
| Central African Republic | 250 (62–455) | 917 (38–15420) | 38 (2–611) | 149 (35–327) | 579 (23–10075) | 24 (1–412) | 66% (34–82%) |
| Chad | 864 (380–1385) | 2578 (136–35707) | 107 (8–1468) | 529 (188–1015) | 1633 (81–23366) | 71 (5–986) | 68% (33–83%) |
| Comoros | 6 (5–7) | 26 (1–375) | 1 (0·095–19) | 4 (2–6) | 19 (1–279) | 0·996 (0·069–14) | 74% (44–89%) |
| Congo (Brazzaville) | 106 (33–195) | 381 (20–6760) | 19 (1–349) | 71 (21–154) | 266 (13–4832) | 14 (0·905–249) | 73% (43–88%) |
| Côte d'Ivoire | 916 (364–1463) | 2958 (171–50 474) | 133 (9–2221) | 577 (194–1102) | 1986 (105–34475) | 92 (6–1520) | 72% (37–87%) |
| Cuba | 18 (1–35) | 46 (1–906) | 3 (0·094–52) | 7 (0·555–20) | 20 (1–427) | 1 (0·053–29) | 46% (25–71%) |
| Democratic Republic of the Congo | 7054 (1189–13 968) | 26 623 (1125–467 392) | 1279 (66–22427) | 4209 (711–9669) | 16 903 (640–280 899) | 837 (41–13627) | 65% (38–80%) |
| Djibouti | 8 (7–10) | 36 (2–542) | 2 (0·137–29) | 5 (2–7) | 22 (1–328) | 1 (0·082–18) | 63% (32–80%) |
| Eritrea | 185 (79–299) | 778 (37–12 134) | 42 (2–628) | 124 (46–237) | 562 (26–8332) | 30 (2–449) | 74% (44–88%) |
| Ethiopia | 3823 (1419–6393) | 42 903 (1949–683 400) | 2384 (121–38 973) | 2114 (674–4219) | 25576 (1140–397 863) | 1470 (78–22 977) | 63% (33–78%) |
| Georgia | 2 (0·254–5) | 11 (0–199) | 0·583 (0·021–11) | 1 (0·109–3) | 5 (0–98) | 0·314 (0·011–6) | 50% (27–73%) |
| Ghana | 614 (530–717) | 2737 (147–40 059) | 137 (10–1936) | 434 (231–595) | 1944 (102–28 230) | 101 (7–1457) | 73% (43–88%) |
| Guinea | 548 (232–889) | 2065 (88–34 156) | 101 (6–1615) | 340 (120–651) | 1355 (57–22 851) | 68 (4–1112) | 68% (35–83%) |
| Guinea-Bissau | 32 (7–57) | 109 (6–1838) | 5 (0·303–79) | 21 (4–44) | 75 (4–1257) | 3 (0·205–57) | 73% (42–87%) |
| Guyana | 6 (0·511–11) | 16 (0–285) | 0·845 (0·032–14) | 3 (0·256–7) | 8 (0–139) | 0·460 (0·016–8) | 52% (27–74%) |
| Haiti | 119 (12–245) | 338 (10–5880) | 15 (0·659–253) | 55 (6–149) | 164 (5–3119) | 8 (0·320–156) | 50% (27–73%) |
| Honduras | 55 (8–107) | 153 (5–2632) | 9 (0·319–154) | 31 (4–72) | 89 (3–1668) | 6 (0·199–102) | 60% (33–81%) |
| India | 41 362 (12 871–69 611) | 391 952 (75 714–1 862 894) | 22 126 (4364–105 476) | 19 503 (5409–39 629) | 202 445 (37 807–1 051 607) | 12 006 (2291–61 292) | 54% (32–69%) |
| Indonesia | 5458 (2176–8891) | 6126 (1291–28 386) | 377 (85–1652) | 2556 (921–4994) | 2932 (600–14 595) | 186 (40–901) | 51% (26–66%) |
| Kenya | 1035 (891–1183) | 7719 (494–96 294) | 389 (29–4593) | 709 (373–957) | 5275 (306–65 270) | 275 (20–3287) | 72% (42–86%) |
| Kiribati | 4 (2–7) | 18 (1–314) | 1 (0·071–18) | 2 (0·838–5) | 11 (1–182) | 0·655 (0·043–10) | 65% (33–81%) |
| Kyrgyzstan | 6 (0·419–13) | 25 (1–560) | 1 (0·051–29) | 3 (0·228–9) | 16 (0–327) | 0·929 (0·031–19) | 63% (36–82%) |
| Laos | 418 (246–593) | 590 (21–14015) | 35 (3–782) | 238 (105–409) | 353 (13–9194) | 22 (1–525) | 63% (32–79%) |
| Lesotho | 6 (0·865–11) | 19 (1–342) | 0·764 (0·040–13) | 3 (0·501–7) | 12 (0–225) | 0·511 (0·026–9) | 65% (35–82%) |
| Liberia | 390 (99–713) | 1460 (68–26795) | 70 (4–1225) | 250 (65–558) | 985 (44–17825) | 49 (3–858) | 70% (41–87%) |
| Madagascar | 1907 (374–3405) | 7312 (311–130 539) | 397 (21–7034) | 1157 (220–2484) | 4913 (198–82 656) | 272 (14–4469) | 69% (38–84%) |
| Malawi | 251 (170–336) | 989 (49–13 960) | 52 (3–727) | 169 (86–267) | 677 (35–10 045) | 36 (2–526) | 72% (41–87%) |
| Mali | 559 (352–797) | 1767 (104–23 836) | 86 (6–1150) | 379 (178–621) | 1221 (64–17 280) | 60 (4–828) | 72% (39–87%) |
| Mauritania | 86 (73–100) | 275 (15–3615) | 14 (1–183) | 59 (31–79) | 180 (10–2468) | 10 (0·666–133) | 70% (38–85%) |
| Moldova | 1 (0·076–2) | 5 (0–123) | 0·282 (0·008–6) | 0·581 (0·035–2) | 3 (0–62) | 0·164 (0·004–3) | 54% (29–74%) |
| Mongolia | 53 (3–112) | 224 (5–4698) | 12 (0·307–229) | 28 (2–75) | 127 (3–2609) | 7 (0·178–145) | 59% (34–81%) |
| Mozambique | 712 (517–942) | 2837 (161–42 263) | 129 (10–1884) | 497 (257–749) | 2008 (105–29 791) | 93 (6–1325) | 74% (43–88%) |
| Myanmar | 1406 (1112–1695) | 6237 (345–92 882) | 331 (24–4954) | 745 (355–1127) | 3443 (179–53 785) | 195 (12–2979) | 57% (30–75%) |
| Nepal | 847 (364–1346) | 3735 (190–59 846) | 222 (15–3541) | 492 (169–944) | 2399 (110–37 664) | 146 (9–2294) | 65% (35–81%) |
| Nicaragua | 47 (5–96) | 123 (5–2247) | 7 (0·339–129) | 25 (2–66) | 71 (3–1200) | 4 (0·206–74) | 59% (32–80%) |
| Niger | 651 (374–991) | 2605 (136–37 836) | 135 (9–2045) | 435 (193–764) | 1804 (92–26 416) | 95 (6–1390) | 72% (40–87%) |
| Nigeria | 8463 (4305–13 193) | 147 422 (12 331–1 762 558) | 5808 (539–70 849) | 4548 (1928–8488) | 85667 (7170–1 065 947) | 3553 (314–44 268) | 60% (36–76%) |
| North Korea | 657 (52–1267) | 1807 (67–37 045) | 100 (5–2026) | 318 (26–790) | 987 (34–20 168) | 60 (2–1188) | 54% (28–74%) |
| Pakistan | 4205 (2522–6021) | 7838 (860–69 350) | 465 (68–3949) | 1979 (869–3391) | 4028 (410–37 056) | 245 (32–2147) | 54% (28–69%) |
| Papua New Guinea | 1520 (359–1667) | 6028 (301–94 164) | 334 (21–5091) | 836 (201–1151) | 3206 (153–53 604) | 183 (11–2929) | 57% (24–74%) |
| Rwanda | 286 (138–448) | 1236 (64–20 914) | 66 (4–1106) | 192 (82–363) | 867 (45–15 332) | 48 (3–797) | 74% (43–88%) |
| São Tomé and Príncipe | 2 (0·713–3) | 6 (0–92) | 0·325 (0·022–5) | 1 (0·403–2) | 4 (0–66) | 0·238 (0·015–4) | 72% (44–88%) |
| Senegal | 242 (185–329) | 746 (55–9350) | 39 (4–491) | 164 (87–265) | 523 (36–6541) | 29 (3–365) | 71% (44–88%) |
| Sierra Leone | 403 (153–654) | 1596 (76–23 794) | 68 (4–957) | 273 (95–521) | 1145 (52–17 710) | 49 (3–703) | 74% (42–88%) |
| Solomon Islands | 49 (11–88) | 196 (10–3130) | 12 (0·720–185) | 32 (8–68) | 140 (6–2166) | 9 (0·511–130) | 74% (39–88%) |
| Somalia | 431 (252–689) | 1867 (102–29 095) | 77 (6–1176) | 253 (118–489) | 1164 (62–17 965) | 50 (4–792) | 64% (36–82%) |
| South Sudan | 265 (170–376) | 1183 (62–18 950) | 52 (4–810) | 145 (65–247) | 680 (35–11 389) | 31 (2–490) | 60% (32–76%) |
| Sri Lanka | 188 (42–329) | 808 (36–13 554) | 48 (3–837) | 94 (20–209) | 436 (19–8229) | 28 (2–500) | 57% (31–76%) |
| Sudan | 662 (241–1101) | 2753 (126–44 516) | 152 (9–2442) | 423 (140–856) | 1878 (82–29 031) | 106 (6–1644) | 73% (39–88%) |
| Tajikistan | 12 (1–25) | 51 (1–982) | 3 (0·100–54) | 7 (0·714–18) | 35 (1–731) | 2 (0·071–42) | 71% (42–88%) |
| Tanzania | 1955 (777–3279) | 7691 (344–117 287) | 430 (26–6701) | 1321 (472–2576) | 5432 (249–89 376) | 312 (19–4894) | 74% (43–88%) |
| The Gambia | 35 (25–46) | 150 (8–2061) | 7 (0·494–100) | 24 (13–38) | 108 (5–1406) | 6 (0·345–72) | 74% (44–88%) |
| Timor-Leste | 42 (33–53) | 187 (9–2639) | 11 (0·754–157) | 28 (13–41) | 125 (6–1745) | 8 (0·479–107) | 70% (36–86%) |
| Togo | 161 (129–196) | 680 (36–10 021) | 34 (2–483) | 114 (60–158) | 503 (25–7019) | 25 (2–360) | 74% (42–88%) |
| Uganda | 532 (434–641) | 2331 (124–34 593) | 116 (8–1654) | 375 (193–518) | 1670 (90–24 335) | 86 (6–1234) | 74% (42–88%) |
| Ukraine | 16 (1–31) | 70 (2–1365) | 4 (0·153–70) | 7 (0·531–18) | 34 (1–665) | 2 (0·084–38) | 51% (29–74%) |
| Uzbekistan | 30 (2–62) | 124 (4–2474) | 6 (0·244–131) | 16 (1–43) | 71 (2–1457) | 4 (0·147–83) | 60% (35–82%) |
| Vietnam | 1008 (602–1437) | 18 016 (2391–131 262) | 1080 (144–7668) | 511 (219–913) | 9833 (1166–73 354) | 627 (74–4693) | 56% (30–76%) |
| Yemen | 7338 (602–8860) | 18 010 (537–271 293) | 1033 (43–15 369) | 3924 (346–6342) | 10 059 (324–141 892) | 599 (24–8373) | 62% (26–82%) |
| Zambia | 431 (246–665) | 1657 (91–25 197) | 82 (6–1246) | 293 (134–532) | 1186 (59–18 325) | 61 (4–924) | 73% (42–88%) |
| Zimbabwe | 233 (16–485) | 1203 (35–18 952) | 56 (2–863) | 157 (11–377) | 866 (25–13 274) | 41 (1–627) | 73% (42–88%) |
Data are n (PI) or % (PI). Total cases include both antimicrobial-resistant and antimicrobial-sensitive typhoid fever cases. The total number of deaths and DALYs at baseline and averted by vaccination depend on the prevalence of antimicrobial resistance, since we assume that the risk of death and years lived with disability are one to three times higher for resistant cases compared with sensitive typhoid fever cases· Countries are listed alphabetically. DALYs=disability-adjusted life-years. PI=prediction interval.