Table 5.
Minimum R&D portfolios and costs for progressing at least one vaccine candidate through end of phase 2a, per epidemic infectious disease
|
Number of preclinical candidates (high PoS/high cost to low PoS/low cost scenario) |
Number of phase 1 candidates (high PoS/high cost to low PoS/low cost scenario): number of available candidates | Number of phase 2 candidates (high PoS/high cost to low PoS/low cost scenario): number of available candidates |
Expected US$ cost, preclinical through phase 2a (95% CI) |
Expected number of phase 2b/3 ready vaccine candidates (95% CI) |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Number of available candidates | Number of new candidates needed | Low PoS/low cost scenario | High PoS–high cost scenario | Low PoS–low cost scenario | High PoS–high cost scenario | |||
| Chikungunya | 0–3 | .. | 2–5 | 2 | 155 million (66–289 million) | 112 million (34–252 million) | 1 (1–3) | 1 (1–2) |
| Zika | .. | .. | 4–8 | 1 | 149 million (54–299 million) | 158 million (45–357 million) | 1 (1–3) | 1 (1–3) |
| Rift Valley fever | 5–13 | .. | .. | 2 | 224 million (100–409 million) | 244 million (61–570 million) | 1 (1–3) | 1 (1–2) |
| MERS | 3–12 | .. | 4 | .. | 244 million (108–439 million) | 245 million (71–543 million) | 1 (1–3) | 1 (1–3) |
| Marburg | 7–16 | .. | 2 | .. | 274 million (119–495 million) | 358 million (86–792 million) | 1 (1–3) | 1 (1–3) |
| Lassa | 11–21 | .. | .. | .. | 319 million (137–590 million) | 469 million (99–1100 million) | 1 (1–3) | 1 (1–3) |
| CCHF | 6 | 3–12 | 1 | .. | 289 million (125–531 million) | 414 million (94–911 million) | 1 (1–3) | 1 (1–3) |
| Nipah | 11–13 | 0–8 | .. | .. | 319 million (137–590 million) | 469 million (99–1100 million) | 1 (1–3) | 1 (1–3) |
| SARS | 6 | 5–15 | .. | .. | 319 million (137–590 million) | 469 million (99–1100 million) | 1 (1–3) | 1 (1–3) |
| SFTS | 1 | 10–20 | .. | .. | 319 million (137–590 million) | 469 million (99–1100 million) | 1 (1–3) | 1 (1–3) |
| Total | 50–91 | 18–55 | 13–20 | 5 | 2800 million (1200–5000 million) | 3700 million (900–8400 million) | 10 (10–30) | 10 (10–29) |