Table 1.
Baseline Cohort, Natural History, and Intervention Parameters
| Parameter | Base Case Value | Reference(s) |
|---|---|---|
| Baseline cohort characteristics | ||
| Population size. no. | 100000 | … |
| Annual birth rate, births/1000 | 21.2 | [22] |
| Mortality rate | Age stratified | [47] |
| Fixed natural history parameters | ||
| Duration of infectiousness, wk | 3 | [48] |
| Long-term carriage, age stratified, % | 0.3–10.1 | [23] |
| Duration of carriage, ya | 10 | [23, 49, 50] |
| Case-fatality rate, symptomatic infection, % | 0.5 | [28] |
| Duration of Salmonella infectiousness in environment, wk | 3 | [18, 51] |
| Fitted natural history parameters | ||
| Short-cycle transmission coefficient | See appendix | Fitted |
| Long-cycle transmission coefficient | See appendix | Fitted |
| Fraction of reporting symptomatic cases | See appendix | Fitted |
| Relative infectiousness of long-term carriers | See appendix | Fitted |
| Rate of immunological waning | See appendix | Fitted |
| Intervention parameters of vaccination strategies | ||
| Coverage, EPI, % | 85 | [20, 21] |
| Coverage, school-based program, % | 75 | [22] |
| Vaccine efficacy, % | 91.5 | [15] |
| Vaccine, mean duration of protection, y | 19.2 | [15, 16, 18] |
aDuration of carriage includes short-term (<1 year) and long-term carriage, while also accounting for concurrent antibiotic use over time, which would cure a carriage state.