Figure 3. Treatment success rates depend on the net growth rate of tumours.
a, Time snapshots before and during therapy (M = 10−6). Resistant subpopulations that cause the tumour to regrow after treatment can be seen at T = 1 month. b, c, Probability of tumour regrowth (Pregrowth) as a function of time after treatment initiation, for different dispersal probabilities (M) and net growth rates of the resistant cells. A higher net growth rate (b) leads to a high regrowth probability, so that 50% of tumours regrow 6 months after treatment is initiated when M = 10−5. c, Tumours with lower net growth rates require >20 months to achieve the same probability of regrowth. Number of samples = 1 to 800 per point (282 on average). Error bars are s.e.m. See Methods for details.