Table 4.
Estimated modal shift associated with cycle hire use, and point estimates of exposures for each mode
| Variables | Physical activity | Physical activity and air pollution | Air pollution | Modelled injury rates per million hours among 16-60 year olds (including scaling for under-reporting) | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No (%) of trips (millions)* | Past year travel time (millions hours) | Median METs of activity | Average route exposure to PM2.5 | Pollution exposure factor† | Killed, male | Serious injury, male | Slight injury, male | Killed, female | Serious injury, female | Slight injury, female | |||
| Observed: | |||||||||||||
| Cycle hire bicycle | 7.39 | 2.09 | 6.8 | 15.75 | 6.8 | 0‡ | 6.30‡ | 30.80 | 0‡ | 9.28‡ | 16.70‡ | ||
| Counterfactual modal shift: | |||||||||||||
| Own bicycle | 0.51 (6.9) | 0.12 | 6.8 | 15.75 | 6.8 | 0.20 | 11.42 | 76.46 | 0.55 | 9.02 | 63.07 | ||
| Walking | 2.26 (30.6) | 0.90 | 3.3 | 14.51 | 2.64 | 0.09 | 2.74 | 10.14 | 0.07 | 1.84 | 8.92 | ||
| Bus | 1.34 (18.1) | 0.53 | 1.5§ | 17.81 | 1.5 | 0.004 | 1.91 | 1.74 | 0.004 | 1.93 | 0.29 | ||
| Underground | 2.01 (27.2) | 0.65 | 1.5§ | 200 | 0.825 | 0.002‡ | 0.47 | Not used | 0.002‡ | 0.47 | Not used | ||
| Train | 0.16 (2.1) | 0.05 | 1.5§ | 14.91 | 1.5 | 0‡ | 0.05 | Not used | 0‡ | 0.05 | Not used | ||
| Taxi | 0.23 (3.1) | 0.06 | 1§ | 17.80 | 1.3 | 0‡ | 0.74 | 13.16 | 0‡ | 0.60 | 6.11 | ||
| Car or van | 0.13 (1.8) | 0.05 | 1.5§ | 17.80 | 1.95 | 0.02 | 1.28 | 19.30 | 0.02‡ | 1.14 | 18.19 | ||
| Motorcycle/ moped | 0.04 (0.6) | 0.01 | 2.5§ | 17.80 | 2.5 | 0.77 | 23.67 | 147.65 | 0.44‡¶ | 22.91¶ | 207.98¶ | ||
| Other | 0.04 (0.6) | 0.02 | 1§ | 14.91 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Trip newly generated by cycle hire | 0.67 (9.0) | 0 | 1 | 14.91 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
MET=metabolic equivalent of tasks; PM2.5=air pollution particles of diameter ≤2.5 μm; not used (that is, treated as zero)=no reliable data.
See appendix 3 for further details of the calculation of values presented in this table.
*The modal shift proportions presented correspond with the midpoint estimate of 9% of cycle hire trips being newly generated; variations in this percentage lead to the other modal shift values being scaled accordingly.
†Pollution exposure factor created by multiplying a scaling factor for ventilation rate, scaling factor for road position, and scaling factor for composition of pollution (see table 16 in appendix 3).
‡Should be treated with some caution as they are based on fewer than five fatalities or injuries.
§Not used for physical activity as median MET was ≤2.5 (marginal MET<=1.5)
¶Should be treated with particular caution as estimated denominator of time is more than 10 times smaller than for any other mode.