Figure 3.
Temporal discounting predicts risk preferences in monkeys. Subjective Expected Utility (SEU) of risky target (left ordinate) as a function of inter-trial interval as estimated by the behavioral model assuming hyperbolic discounting (see Methods). Probability of a risky choice is overlaid to facilitate comparison (dots, right ordinate). The model predicts that the SEU of the risky and safe targets will be equal with an ITI of 46 seconds. Behavioral data is well fit by the model (r2=0.86, p=0.0001). Note that the behavioral data show a small tendency to deviate from the model data at very short ITIs. Dotted line indicates predictions of best-fit exponential model (see text). Dashed line indicates risk neutrality, and also shows the predicted SEU of the safe target.